Q3.5 Timelines Update: Looks Like the Intelligence Explosion Will Happen in 2027 After All

The authors argue that recent AI progress data from METR implies a 1.7x AI-attributable acceleration in the pace of software and research development, leading them to update their timelines. They now forecast that a Superhuman AI Researcher will arrive in 2027 rather than 2029. Consequently, they contend that pausing frontier AI development is urgent to prevent the deployment of misaligned recursive self-improvement. Open article →